Tag future

Martin Rees on why we’re all doomed

Astronomer Royal Martin Rees thinks that this century is the most important one in the Earth’s 4.5 billion year history:

It’s sometimes wrongly imagined that astronomers, contemplating timespans measured in billions, must be serenely unconcerned about next year, next week and tomorrow. But a "cosmic perspective" actually strengthens my own concerns about the here and now.

Ever since Darwin, we’ve been familiar with the stupendous timespans of the evolutionary past. But most people still somehow think we humans are necessarily the culmination of the evolutionary tree. No astronomer could believe this.

Our sun formed 4.5bn years ago, but it’s got 6bn more before the fuel runs out. And the expanding universe will continue – perhaps for ever – becoming ever colder, ever emptier. As Woody Allen said, "Eternity is very long, especially towards the end". Any creatures who witness the sun’s demise, here on Earth or far beyond, won’t be human. They will be entities as different from us as we are from a bug.

But even in this "concertinaed" timeline – extending millions of centuries into the future, as well as into the past – this century is special. It’s the first in our planet’s history where one species – ours – has Earth’s future in its hands, and could jeopardise not only itself, but life’s immense potential.

Hint: it’s not good.

It seems to be a truncated version of his book Our Final Century (which I’ve not read). Interestingly, Rees’ publisher removed the question mark from his original title Our Final Century?; his American publisher seemingly didn’t think this made the doom impending enough, and renamed it again as Our Final Hour.

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The Edge Annual Question for 2009

Edge have published the responses to their annual question for 2009:

What will change everything?

What game-changing scientific ideas and developments do you expect to live to see?

Among the many answers, Richard Dawkins considers how human ‘speciesism’ might be challenged by the production of a human-chimp chimera, Marti Hearst predicts the decline of the written word in favour of audio and video communications, and Oliver Morton suggests that geoengineering (i.e. “deliberate changes in the way the climate system works”) may be used in order to curb the effects of global warming, when the ineffectiveness of emission reduction becomes apparent.

Many of these predictions would not necessarily be welcome by most: luckily for them, as Steven Pinker makes clear in his own answer, predictions of the future have a significant tendency to be completely wrong.

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