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Nov 10 / Richard

There’s always one (in 12.5 million)

Spam

A study has found that only 1 in 12,500,000 pharmacy spam emails on the Storm botnet actually leads to a purchase.

According to Wikipedia, over 100 billion spam emails are sent every day, of which approximately 13% are health related. This means that about only about 1,000 purchases are made as a result of these messages every day, translating into less than half a million purchases every year. Is this really enough to make the whole thing worthwhile?

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5 Comments

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  1. Alex Steer / Nov 11 2008

    The average purchase price was 100 USD. If that’s a good index, and if the Storm botnet is representative, global pharma spam income is £365m. According to Spamhaus, 80% of spam is generated by 114 major spamming organizations. If response rates and income from purchases are distributed roughly evenly, each org is raking in a cool £2.56m a year.

    /geek

  2. Alex Steer / Nov 11 2008

    Got my dollar and pound signs confused. Otherwise, yup.

  3. Richard / Nov 11 2008

    Thanks for that, Alex. I wouldn’t complain about $2.6 million a year myself, but that’s still lower than I would have expected. Maybe I’m just trying to balance it against the amount of annoyance that spam causes…

  4. Richard / Nov 13 2008

    Ah, I missed this in the full report [PDF]:

    Under the assumption that our measurements are representative over time (an admittedly dangerous assumption when dealing with such small samples), we can extrapolate that, were it sent continuously at the same rate, Storm-generated pharmaceutical spam would produce roughly 3.5 million dollars of revenue in a year.

    This number could be even higher if spam-advertised pharmacies
    experience repeat business. A bit less than “millions of dollars every day”, but certainly a healthy enterprise.

    So our figure wasn’t bad for an order-of-magnitude calculation. Once you subtract the costs of spamming from this, this probably leaves very slim profit margins.

  5. AlexSteer / Nov 13 2008

    Aha – hooray for actual numbers, rather than our made-up ones. Not sure about the costs of spamming. I suppose with a botnet you’re outsourcing a lot of the costs (equipment, power, bandwidth, etc.), which takes the marginal cost per spam email from very very low to even lower than that. Of course, there’s still the cost of running from the law and holing up in some random country with inattentive ISPs.

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